A terrible play on words I know… But hey let me justify the title.
So I had come to a conclusion in my head after holding AAPL call spreads all day on friday (AAPL was down -1.12%) this week that AAPL is never green on fridays anymore. Perhaps it was just out of anger from losing money all day that I had this feeling but soon as the closing bell rang I decided that I would do some research & see if my thoughts could be supported with some numbers.
So I got started by looking at every friday since March 14th 2011 and noted if it was red or green. The bias was shifted fairly red which to me isn’t surprising because it did feel like AAPL was red on friday often. To give exact number there were 88 red fridays since march 14th 2011 which equates to 57% of the time.
The numbers become even more skewed when you look at the last year of friday where AAPL closed red on friday 65% of the time. This is an interesting number to me because if you look what AAPL has done in the last year its up nearly 25% & to think the majority of the fridays are weak is something to take note of.
Then what is even more interesting to me is how Monday’s behave following a red Friday. Out of the 87 possible mondays (or Tues. if Mon. was closed) we began the week with a positive day closing green 64% of the time. I did take it one step further to see if a green Monday gave follow through into Tuesday but it was just 50/50.
So how can we trade off of this? Well I for one wouldn’t use these stats as a sole basis to get short on Thursday & then cover near the end of the day Friday to then flip long with anticipation of a green Monday… However what I would do is use technical analysis to at first look for a setup on AAPL on Fridays ( as I normally do ) & then see if my prediction for that day is at all supported by what this small research says. Meaning if I think AAPL is looking like it could breakdown on Friday & the data surely says its more likely to then perhaps it would be a good trade idea.
I’ll finish with this…The odds of me being long AAPL going into friday from now on are about 35%.
If you would like to download the numbers spreadsheet that I worked on you can do so here Red AAPL PDF
Remember this is just a watchlist and do not guarantee to be profitable trades. Use your own judgment when making the trade.
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